This seminar aims to explore the rich nexus involving the proliferation of nuclear weapons and intelligence assessments. Due to the nature of the proliferation dynamics—i.e., nuclear weapons programs are conceived and evolved under strategic and operational secrecy, states tend to define their early nuclear commitments tentatively and ambiguously, the dual use nature of nuclear technology, etc.—identifying and tracing proliferation is epistemologically a difficult task for intelligence. The seminar will explore this difficulty on both the macro and micro levels, that is, from the broad/epistemological level to the narrow empirical/historical case by case level.

In addition, the seminar will examine historically the process by which the US intelligence organizations dealt with some historical cases of proliferation from the Manhattan Project era to the present. The seminar will also examine the process by which intelligence assessments are developed and disseminated, including technologies and human resources. Students will examine some case studies where intelligence assessments have played key roles, including cases of intelligence failures.